Quarantine gets to all of us, and I decided to use some of my time to throw together an excel-based spreadsheet that allows people to see what it would take to move around in the draft based on the conventional pick value systems.
The google drive link is below. It is not editable to prevent everyone trying to use it online, plus google sheets sucks. Please download to access it. I am not sophisticated enough to program a virus:
How to use:
You will see two tabs in the model. These contain the draft values under the original Jimmy Johnson created system, as well as what is supposed to be a more updated points system created by Rich Hill. All sourcing data here is per https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp.
The value to the right of the pick number and team it belongs to is the value under the current system you’re looking at. I have highlighted the Eagles picks for easy of comparison.
To the right you will see the ‘Value of Acquired Picks’ and ‘Value of Offered Picks’ tables. You should only be editing the seven blank spaces in the boxes under ‘Pick Number’. Again please only edit these cells.
All you need to do is enter the number of the picks you want to get, and the number of the picks you’re willing to give up in those two boxes. The point value will appear next to them automatically (if this doesn’t work, check that your excel is in automatic calculation mode. Shift+F9 will work if you’re in manual), and then be summed down below. Currently, the model is set to the values of us trading with the Browns up to #10 by offering #21 and #53. The model suggests under the JJ system that we’d need to offer more, and suggests a basically fair trade under the Hill values.
The +/- section will tell you where the balance of the trade is. Below that, you’ll see boxes titled ‘Single-Pick Difference?’. This will show you the round of pick you’d need to add at a minimum to get closer in range if you’re only adding a single pick. It’s a basic calculation that only checks the low end of the round’s value vs. the trade point difference. I.e. there’s currently a 130 point difference under the JJ values, so it suggests a third round pick as the values of those range from 82 – 265.
To account for future picks, the rough estimate that I’ve seen is that they should be discounted one round per year. I.e. a 2021 first round is worth a 2020 second round. Tinker accordingly.
This is pretty simple, half assed model so please don’t expect it to teach you how to be a GM or account for lots of variables
Excel pros: don’t judge my shitty Index(Match
I didn’t watermark or put my username anywhere on this, so feel free to share with whoever. Just don’t be the dick who uploads it to r/NFL and claims it’s yours
I had originally attempted to password protect all cells except for the ones you should be editing, which again are just the pick number cells on the right-side boxes, but apparently that doesn’t translate through Google Drive. If for some reason it is locked for editing, it should only request a password on the cells I mentioned above. Password: greasethepoles
Have fun, stay safe